Melbourne, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

718
FXUS62 KMLB 060649
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
249 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into
  early next week.

- Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic
will drift southward towards the Bahamas today, dragging the ridge
axis into south Florida. Meanwhile, the upper level high over
south Texas will expand its axis farther eastward through the
Gulf, towards the Florida peninsula. Ridging through the column
and the continued influence of the SAL give confidence that the
NBM PoPs are overzealous once again today. While slightly cooler
than yesterday, forecast 500mb temperatures around -6.5 to -7C and
modest lapse rates do not support the widespread 50-70% PoPs from
the NBM. Instead, have trended towards MOS and CONSAll guidance,
with PoPs generally 30-40% across the area. CAMs suggest the
highest coverage once again occurring along and north of the I-4
corridor, with the lowest chances across southern portions of the
forecast area. Similarly to Thursday, should a storm be able to
take advantage of drier air in the mid-levels, wind gusts up to 50
mph will be possible, along with the threat for lightning strikes
and locally heavy rainfall. Any showers or storms will peak in
activity from mid to late afternoon, then drift off of the coast
into the evening hours with dry conditions then prevailing
overnight.

With the ridge axis south of the forecast area, southwesterly flow
is forecast to prevail across east central Florida. This will lead
to a more dominant west coast sea breeze, helping to pin the east
coast breeze at or near the coast. Thus, little relief from hot
temperatures is expected this afternoon, with highs reaching the
lower 90s. Lingering moisture across the area will also lead to
humid conditions and heat indices from 100-105 degrees. Warm
temperatures will continue overnight, with lows in the lower to
mid-70s.

This Weekend...The pattern generally continues through the
weekend, with the ridge axis remaining south of the local area,
though the ridge over the western Atlantic will elongate/drift
eastward through the period. Slightly drier air (PWATs closer to
1.5" than 1.75") will be the main difference. Combined with
continued warm (~-7C) 500mb temperatures, have continued to
undercut the NBM through the weekend. PoPs 20-30% Saturday and
30-40% Sunday. Increasingly drier air could support a few stronger
wind gusts, should storms develop and be able to take advantage of
it. Temperatures will creep higher into Sunday, with highs
reaching the lower to mid-90s. Continued southwesterly flow will
limit the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze. Heat
indices remaining around 98-103 degrees.

Next Week...The ridge continues to move eastward into the Atlantic
next week, as the ridge axis drifts northward through the local
area. Meanwhile, a series of weak upper-level shortwaves are
forecast to pass through the Deep South. As the ridge axis moves
northward, higher moisture will return to east central Florida,
advected in by southerly flow. The east coast sea breeze will
drift increasingly inland, with a collision over the interior.
Higher shower and storm chances return, though likely not with
enough coverage to support the 90% produced by the NBM. Thus, have
gone with a more seasonable 50-60% each day next week. Temperatures
will remain hot through at least Tuesday, before a more dominant
east coast sea breeze develops into late week. Highs remaining in
the lower to mid-90s early in the week, then upper 80s to lower
90s for the rest of the period. Heat indices 100-105 remain
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week next
week, as high pressure lingers near to the local area. The main
threat will be scattered offshore- moving showers and storms in
the late afternoon and evening hours each day. South to
southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along the coast each
afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the sea breeze develops,
but remains pinned through at least this weekend. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Mainly VFR conds through the TAF period. Light W/SW flow 5-7 kts
develops after sunrise, shifting southeast at the coastal
terminals behind the sea breeze btwn 17Z-19Z. Will maintain VCTS
over northern terminals aft 18Z, incl MCO/SFB/DAB/MLB. Some of
these will prob be upgraded to TEMPOs. Less confidence for
SHRA/TSRA across southern terminals so no precip mention VRB-SUA
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  93  73 /  50  10  40  10
MCO  93  74  94  74 /  40  10  30  10
MLB  90  74  91  74 /  40  20  30  10
VRB  90  73  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
LEE  91  74  92  75 /  40  10  30  10
SFB  93  74  94  74 /  40  10  30  10
ORL  93  75  94  76 /  40  10  30  10
FPR  90  72  91  73 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Kelly